Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: the numbers behind a heavyweight collision
Arsenal travel to the Allianz Arena as Opta's model rates them Europe's top side, but Bayern arrive on a six-goal high and without Michael Olise.
Arsenal sit as the highest-rated side left in the Champions League by Opta's predictive model, yet Wednesday's trip to Bayern Munich still looks close to a coin flip. The supercomputer gives the hosts a 46.4% chance of winning at the Allianz Arena, reflecting both home advantage and Bayern's recent attacking surge.
Historically this fixture has not favoured Arsenal. They have lost eight of their 15 meetings with Bayern, a 53% defeat rate bettered in negative terms only by their record against Barcelona, against whom they have lost six of nine. But recent European form cuts the other way: Arsenal have won their last 14 league-phase Champions League matches, and they beat this same Bayern side 3-1 last November.
Why Olise's absence matters more than one game
Bayern's red card against Viking on Matchday 2 will be felt again here. Michael Olise was sent off in that 3-3 draw, leaving Bayern a man short for the final 16 minutes as Viking equalised, and the dismissal also triggers a one-match ban that rules him out against Arsenal.
The loss is significant because of what Olise has provided since the start of last season. No player in the competition has created more chances than his 44, he has made 43 line-breaking passes to the joint-highest total in that period, and only Lamine Yamal has completed more dribbles than his 54. Serge Gnabry or the teenager Lennart Karl are the likeliest replacements on the right side of Bayern's attack, but neither offers quite that blend of chance creation and ball progression.
Bayern's attack is firing even without him
Vincent Kompany's side needed no help from Olise to put six goals past RB Leipzig on Saturday, with Luis Díaz scoring a hat-trick in a 6-1 win. Bayern had 17 shots on target in that game, their highest total in any league fixture since they managed 20 against Borussia Mönchengladbach in August 2022.
That outburst followed a stretch of mixed results: a 2-2 draw at Augsburg in which Bayern twice had to come from behind, and the share of six goals with Viking in Europe. Harry Kane's involvement in the Leipzig rout was notable in its own right. He marked his 100th Bundesliga appearance with his 102nd goal in the competition, and he now has two games left before learning whether he becomes the first Englishman since Michael Owen in 2001 to win the Ballon d'Or, with the result due next week.
Kane's record against Arsenal specifically is one of the more striking numbers in this preview. He has scored 15 goals in 22 appearances against the Gunners, a tally he has bettered against only two clubs in his career, Leicester City and Everton.
Arsenal's defensive identity will be tested in Bavaria
Whatever Bayern manage going forward, they will meet the Premier League's tightest defensive unit. Arsenal needed a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest on Sunday to stay within three points of Manchester City, with substitute Noni Madueke settling it via a deflected shot after coming off the bench.
That result was the 32nd time Arsenal have won a Premier League match 1-0 under Mikel Arteta, a tally level with Everton for the most of any side since his appointment in December 2019. It also extended their perfect start in the Champions League group phase, following a 3-0 win over Lille that left them one of nine teams with maximum points.
Central to that defensive solidity has been Ezri Konsa, whose form since joining has been described by the Guardian's David Hytner as a dreamlike stretch. Konsa produced the decisive defensive moment against Forest, tracking back to deny Liam Delap in stoppage time with Arsenal leading 1-0, a block that secured their 10th win in 11 matches this season and another clean sheet.
Arsenal's broader title odds underline why Wednesday matters beyond three points. Opta's model makes them the leading contenders to win the competition outright at 20.7%, just ahead of Bayern on 15.2%, the two highest figures of any side left in the draw. A result in Munich would do plenty to justify either number, and Konsa's duel with Kane, minus Olise's creativity on the other flank, could decide which side takes the early advantage.