Opta's pre-match numbers frame Sunday's meeting at Anfield as a collision between Arsenal's worst away ground and a Liverpool side built on defensive solidity rather than the goals this fixture used to guarantee.
Four days after Everton beat Newcastle in the EFL Cup, the same defensive flaws on both sides return to the fore in Monday's Premier League meeting at St. James' Park.
Yasin Ayari converted a rapid Brighton free-kick to end Manchester City's unbeaten home record against them and inflict a second straight league defeat on Enzo Maresca's side.
Michael Carrick's Manchester United dominated the opening 45 minutes at Stamford Bridge but collapsed after Lisandro Martínez's dismissal, handing Chelsea a 2-0 win built on two second-half goals.
Andoni Iraola's resurgent Liverpool host the Premier League's stingiest defence at Anfield, in a fixture that will test whether their new solidity can match Arsenal's season-long parsimony.
Opta data shows United have more of the ball than last season but worse chances at both ends, and Michael Carrick now has three brutal fixtures to prove the approach can work.
Unai Emery paid a club-record fee to replace Ollie Watkins with a striker whose Chelsea spell was defined by missed chances — but the underlying data always pointed to quality.
Opta's simulations make Chelsea favourites at Stamford Bridge, but both sides arrive out of form, short on key players and chasing a first win in weeks.
Arsenal chase a landmark away win against a side they rarely beat at Anfield, while two of the league's stingiest defences threaten to make goals scarce on Sunday.
Tottenham's win at Chelsea was built on a deeper, more controlled midfield role for Mateus Fernandes, whose numbers under pressure point to a long-term solution for Roberto De Zerbi's system.
Marco Palestra is expected to start at wing-back against Liverpool in the EFL Cup, a chance to answer doubts raised by his early Premier League cameos, Football Italia reports.