Carrick's Manchester United Crisis Meets Chelsea's Own Slump
Opta's simulations make Chelsea favourites at Stamford Bridge, but both sides arrive out of form, short on key players and chasing a first win in weeks.
Michael Carrick takes Manchester United to Stamford Bridge on Saturday with his team one of the worst in English top-flight history by recent results, and little margin left for another collapse.
United have not won in eight matches in all competitions, drawing three and losing five since beating Sabah in the Champions League on 10 September, according to The Analyst (Opta). That is their longest winless run since a nine-game stretch in 1988.
The alarm has been raised by the manner of the losses as much as their frequency. A 4-1 defeat at Como in the Champions League was followed by a 3-0 home loss to Bournemouth, and Opta notes that a third straight defeat by three or more goals in all competitions would be United's first such run since November and December 1961.
Why the heavy defeats matter more than the run itself
A side conceding at that rate across separate competitions points to something more structural than bad luck. United's predicted XI lines up in a 4-2-3-1, with Andrey Santos and Carlos Baleba screening the back four, but a double pivot only protects a defence if the press ahead of it is coordinated. Repeated three-goal margins suggest United are being cut open in transition, not just outplayed for long spells — the kind of pattern that tends to precede managerial change if it is not arrested quickly.
There is also unrest off the pitch. Carrick dropped captain Bruno Fernandes to the bench against Bournemouth after the midfielder appeared to criticise his tactics following the Como defeat, per The Analyst. Reports cited suggest the pair have since held clear-the-air talks, and Fernandes is expected to return to the side at Stamford Bridge.
Harry Maguire is set to win his 300th Premier League appearance in the match, and has played every minute of United's season so far alongside Senne Lammens and Bryan Mbeumo, but personal milestones carry little weight against the collective malaise. Carrick is also without Kobbie Mainoo, Patrick Dorgu, Luke Shaw, Benjamin Sesko and Manuel Ugarte, though Marcus Rashford could return if he passes a late fitness test.
Chelsea's own numbers tell a similarly uneasy story
Xabi Alonso's side are not simply the healthier opponent by comparison. Chelsea lost 2-0 at home to Tottenham in their last league outing, a game in which Cole Palmer was sent off, and were then knocked out of the EFL Cup on penalties by Liverpool at Anfield on Wednesday, with Morgan Rogers converting from the spot in a 1-1 draw before the shootout defeat.
The broader trend is worse. Chelsea have lost more league games than any other side since the start of March — 11 in total — and have lost 44.4% of their matches in 2026, their poorest ratio in a calendar year since 1993, according to The Analyst. João Pedro is out until late November, leaving Danny Welbeck as the likely replacement up front; the 35-year-old has scored six Premier League goals against United, more than any other player to have faced them having previously played for the club.
Alonso's injury list extends well beyond the forward line. Emiliano Martínez remains out through a facial injury, captain Reece James is ruled out for the rest of the year, and Maxence Lacroix limped off against Liverpool with what appeared to be a hamstring problem.
A head-to-head that favours neither manager's history
Chelsea have won only two of their last 17 Premier League meetings with United, drawing eight and losing seven, though both of those wins came at Stamford Bridge — 4-3 in 2023-24 and 1-0 the following season. United completed the league double over Chelsea last term and would equal a run last managed in September 1965 with a third straight league win in the fixture.
Alonso's personal record against United adds another layer. As a Liverpool player he lost five of seven Premier League games against them, his joint-worst return against any opponent alongside his record with Chelsea itself, per The Analyst. His last appearance against United as a player came in a 2-1 win for Real Madrid at Old Trafford in March 2013 — a match Carrick himself played the full 90 minutes of.
Chelsea's home record on this specific date offers little reassurance either. No other Premier League club has lost every one of its multiple home fixtures played on Halloween, a dubious distinction Chelsea holds following a 2-1 defeat to Sheffield United in 1992-93 and a 3-1 loss to Liverpool in 2015-16.
What the supercomputer's probabilities actually say
Opta's model, which runs thousands of pre-match simulations factoring in current form and squad strength, gave Chelsea a 51.8% chance of victory, with United's win probability at 23.7% and a draw rated at 24.6%. Those figures measure likelihood across simulated outcomes rather than certainty, and the gap between Chelsea's probability and United's reflects home advantage and recent form more than any settled tactical superiority.
Matheus Cunha scored the only goal when these two sides met in April, following a 2-1 United win at Old Trafford the previous September. With both managers nursing long injury lists and shaky recent results, Saturday's outcome is likely to hinge less on either side's season-long identity than on which collection of absences and fitness tests costs them less.