Branthwaite, Araujo, Ayari and Rayan: the FPL picks the numbers favour for Gameweek 10
Opta's data-led FPL column flags four low-owned players, from an Everton centre-back's aerial dominance to a Bournemouth forward's shot volume, ahead of the international break.
The Analyst's Fantasy Premier League column, The 10% Club, has named four lightly-owned players worth considering for Gameweek 10: Everton's Jarrad Branthwaite, Liverpool's Ronald Araujo, Brighton's Yasin Ayari and Bournemouth's Rayan.
All four sit below 5% ownership, according to The Analyst, which built its picks around underlying data rather than reputation or price.
Branthwaite, at £5.5m, is pitched as a cheaper alternative to the heavily-owned James Tarkowski for Everton's home game against Coventry City.
Coventry have scored only two away goals all season, the lowest in the league, which raises the odds of a home clean sheet for Frank Lampard's side.
Tarkowski remains Everton's top scorer this season with 54 points and edges Branthwaite on points per 90, but the gap is marginal: six to five.
Both defenders also compare closely on DEFCON, the metric tracking tackles, interceptions and clearances that FPL rewards when a defender crosses a set threshold.
Branthwaite has hit that threshold in half his appearances against Tarkowski's 59%, and he won 11 of 13 aerial duels against Newcastle United, the most by any player in a single game this season.
That aerial dominance matters against a Coventry side without a settled away threat, and it offers near-identical defensive upside to the template pick at a lower price.
Araujo's attacking numbers set him apart
Ronald Araujo, now operating at right-back under Andoni Iraola, is the second pick, valued at £5.0m against Virgil van Dijk's price a million pounds higher.
Crystal Palace have not scored in three league games, which makes Liverpool's trip to Selhurst Park an appealing clean-sheet fixture.
Araujo's 4.1 points per match trail Van Dijk's 4.3 by only a fraction, and he has hit DEFCON in his last two outings, including a 14-point return against Brighton once his clean sheet was added.
What separates him from a conventional defensive pick is attacking output: his 0.47 shots inside the box per 90 minutes lead all Liverpool defenders and surpass even midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai's figure.
A full-back generating that volume of shots inside the penalty area adds a goal threat that a purely defensive metric like DEFCON cannot capture on its own.
Liverpool's fixture run after the international break, facing Manchester United, Everton and Sunderland, extends that opportunity.
Ayari's goal involvements outstrip Brighton's bigger names
In midfield, Yasin Ayari is flagged ahead of Brighton's more popular selections, Pascal Groß and Maxime De Cuyper, who together occupy roughly half of FPL squads.
Ayari scored the winner against Manchester City for 10 points, following a goal and an assist in the 5-0 win over Palace the week before.
Across the last three Premier League rounds, no midfielder in the division has outscored his 25 points, 18 clear of Groß and nine ahead of De Cuyper.
Operating as Fabian Hürzeler's first-choice number 10, Ayari's role gives him licence to get into scoring positions that a deeper midfielder would not reach as often.
His two goals in three games already exceed his tally from his previous 14 Premier League appearances combined, a scoring rate The Analyst flags as unlikely to be fully sustainable.
Brentford have yet to keep a Premier League away clean sheet this season, which works in Ayari's favour for Brighton's next fixture at the Amex Stadium.
Rayan's shot volume points to more goals
The fourth pick is Bournemouth's Rayan, priced at £6.3m, selected ahead of better-known teammates Evanilson and Marcus Tavernier because of his lower ownership.
Rayan scored at Old Trafford against Manchester United in his last away match for a 10-point haul.
Over the last two league rounds, only Evanilson, with 15 points, has outscored his return of 13 among Bournemouth's attackers and midfielders.
His underlying numbers support another score soon: he leads the Bournemouth squad for total shots (27) and shots inside the box (20), with only Tavernier registering more shots on target.
Ipswich Town, the opponents he is being targeted against, have not kept a clean sheet in 28 Premier League matches, a run The Analyst cites as central to the case for starting him.