Liverpool and Arsenal collide at Anfield with history pointing both ways
Opta data and a combined XI drawn from both squads frame Sunday's meeting at Anfield, the only fixture in the Premier League this weekend.
Liverpool host Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday in the only Premier League fixture of the weekend, and Opta's supercomputer makes the visitors slight favourites, giving them a 41.8% chance of victory, according to The Analyst.
The prediction sits oddly against recent history. Every one of the 19 Premier League meetings between the two sides from January 2016 to May 2025 produced at least two goals, a combined 78 across those matches, an average of 4.1 per game, The Analyst reports.
Last season broke that pattern completely. Only one goal was scored across the two meetings, a Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick that settled the August 2025 fixture 1-0 at Anfield. Liverpool were the only side in the entire Premier League to stop Arsenal scoring that season, per The Analyst.
Why Arsenal still can't win at Anfield
Arsenal's record at Anfield in the league remains striking for the wrong reasons. They are winless in their last 13 away Premier League visits to Liverpool, drawing five and losing eight, a run stretching back to a 2-0 win in 2012-13. The Analyst notes they have never gone 14 league games without a win there in their history.
That drought has coexisted with some of the most chaotic football either club has produced. Andrey Arshavin scored four times in a 4-4 draw at Anfield in 2009, and Liverpool beat Arsenal 5-1 there in both 2014 and 2018, per The Analyst's figures. The fixture's recent tightness is a departure from that pattern, not a continuation of it.
Arsenal also arrive with a dent in their momentum. On Tuesday they were knocked out of the EFL Cup on penalties by Fleetwood Town, a club The Analyst points out sits 84 rungs lower in the English game, a result flagged as a notable blot before the trip to Merseyside.
What the combined XI says about the balance of power
A combined XI of the two squads, picked by Planet Football, leans heavily on both clubs' defensive personnel, which tells its own story about where this match may be decided. David Raya takes the goalkeeper's jersey, with Planet Football rating him above Alisson given the Liverpool keeper's relative decline this season, while noting both are comparably strong in possession with their feet.
At right-back, Planet Football selects Ben White over both Jurrien Timber and Liverpool's Jeremie Frimpong, pointing to White's three assists this season, only one behind Declan Rice's team-leading tally, and his understanding with Bukayo Saka ahead of him down the right flank.
Virgil van Dijk, now 35 and eight years into his Liverpool career, is picked at centre-back. Planet Football argues his reading of the game compensates for reduced pace, and credits him with underpinning what it calls the division's fourth-best defensive record this season, despite considerable turnover around him.
Gabriel partners him in the composite backline. Planet Football says he is not matching last season's goalscoring output but remains central to Arsenal's structure, particularly with William Saliba sidelined, and rates him among the league's leaders in defensive metrics thanks to his physical presence against opposing forwards.
The left-back slot is contested between Arsenal's Riccardo Calafiori and Liverpool's Milos Kerkez, an indication that the strongest individual battles in this fixture may not be confined to the two sides' attacking talents. The weight given to full-backs and centre-backs in the selection reflects how much both clubs now build their identity from the back rather than purely through their forward lines.
What it means for Sunday
The data points in different directions. Arsenal's underlying numbers make them favourites by Opta's model, yet their away record at Anfield and their midweek cup exit to lower-league opposition offer Liverpool genuine grounds for optimism. Both sides go into the game as recent Premier League champions, and the composite XI drawn from their rosters suggests the contest will be shaped as much by defensive organisation as by the attacking quality on show.