Liverpool's defensive revival collides with Arsenal's miserly machine
Andoni Iraola's resurgent Liverpool host the Premier League's stingiest defence at Anfield, in a fixture that will test whether their new solidity can match Arsenal's season-long parsimony.
Arsenal arrive at Anfield on Sunday as favourites, with Opta's supercomputer giving them a 41.8% chance of victory in the Premier League's only Matchday 9 fixture, according to The Analyst (Opta).
That prediction comes despite a chastening midweek exit from the EFL Cup, beaten on penalties by fourth-tier Fleetwood Town. In the league, Mikel Arteta's side are level on points with Manchester City after seven wins from eight, having needed goals from centre-backs Ezri Konsa and Gabriel Magalhães to see off Everton 2-0 last weekend.
Arsenal's title defence is built on denial, not creation
Arsenal have the joint-most clean sheets in the division this season (five), face the fewest shots on target of any side (24), and have conceded the lowest expected goals against figure in the league at 6.2 xGA — a metric estimating the quality of chances a defence has allowed, based on shot location and type. They have also permitted the fewest big chances of any Premier League team, just 11.
Taken together, those figures point to a team organised to suffocate opponents in a compact low block rather than overwhelm them with fluent attacking play. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their league matches in 2026, the third-best such rate in the club's history, behind only 1998 and 1903.
Liverpool's wins keep arriving with caveats attached
Liverpool's own defensive record has sharpened markedly since the opening weeks of Iraola's tenure, which began with back-to-back 2-2 draws. From September onward, no Premier League side has kept more clean sheets than Liverpool's four in six games — almost matching the five they managed across their first 22 matches of the calendar year.
Results have followed. Liverpool have beaten Brentford, who started that day fourth in the table, and then Brighton, who started third, with victory on Sunday completing a run of beating three top-four sides in succession — a sequence only previously achieved once before.
Guardian Football's Harry Paterson frames that run more cautiously. Every Liverpool win this season has carried a qualifier: Brentford played with ten men, Villarreal were beaten despite Liverpool conceding three. The 2-0 win over Brighton broke that pattern, ending the unbeaten run of the division's top scorers and delivering Liverpool's first home league win since April, according to Guardian Football, which also notes the Reds have won five straight games, including a penalty shoot-out victory over Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, and sit fourth in the table.
Paterson's point is that doubts persist about whether Iraola's side can consistently create enough to break down organised opposition — precisely the question Arsenal's defensive structure is designed to pose.
A fixture that usually settles nothing by halftime
Every Premier League meeting between these two clubs from January 2016 to May 2025 produced at least two goals, 78 in total across 19 games, an average of 4.1 per match. Memorable instalments include a 4-4 draw featuring four goals from Andrey Arshavin and two separate 5-1 Liverpool wins.
Last season broke that trend entirely. Only one goal was scored across both meetings, Dominik Szoboszlai's free-kick settling the August fixture 1-0 at Anfield — the only time all season Arsenal failed to score in the league.
Arsenal's broader record at Anfield in the league remains stark regardless of scoreline: they have not won there in 13 attempts (five draws, eight defeats) since a 2-0 victory in 2012-13, the longest such run without an away win against Liverpool in their league history.
Whether Sunday reverts to the fixture's historical goal glut or extends last season's defensive stalemate may depend on which team's underlying numbers hold up under pressure — Arsenal's meanness in front of their own goal, or Liverpool's recently discovered ability to match it. Either way, as Guardian Football puts it, the result should offer a clearer read on how far Iraola's side have actually progressed.