Manchester United's Control Experiment Is Backfiring on Michael Carrick
Opta data shows United have more of the ball than last season but worse chances at both ends, and Michael Carrick now has three brutal fixtures to prove the approach can work.
Michael Carrick was not sacked after Manchester United's defeats to Como and Bournemouth, but the numbers behind those performances explain why his position remained so precarious, according to analysis by The Analyst (Opta).
The data points to a specific tactical shift this season rather than simply a dip in form. United's possession has risen from 49% to 56%, and they are averaging 43 more final-third passes per game than in the second half of last season, Opta's figures show.
More of the ball has not meant better chances
That extra territory has not translated into quality. United have had more shots than any other Premier League side this season, but the average xG value of those attempts is just 0.08, better only than Tottenham's 0.07, per Opta. Expected goals measures the likelihood of a shot being scored based on factors like location and build-up, so a low average value signals a team generating volume without genuine threat.
United are also underperforming their underlying numbers. Only three teams have a bigger gap between actual goals and expected goals than United's -2.8 this season, suggesting finishing has compounded a problem that starts with chance quality.
The same pattern of control without reward shows up defensively. Opponents' shots against United carry an average xG per shot of 0.14, the highest figure in the division, and 40.2% of shots faced have been on target, the second-highest rate in the league. United are not necessarily conceding more shots, but the ones they do concede tend to be clear-cut.
The case for sitting deeper instead of pushing on
This is where an alternative reading of the data becomes interesting. United have managed 15 shots from fast breaks this season, more than any other Premier League club, which points to a clear strength in transition. Yet no team has spent a greater proportion of match time building attacks against a low block than United have, which suggests they have often tried to break down packed defences rather than lean into the counterattacking qualities the numbers say they possess.
There is a reasonable argument, drawn from this split, that United might have been better served sitting deeper collectively, prioritising compactness and protecting their own goal while waiting for the kind of transition moments where they have already shown a cutting edge. That approach may have produced fewer shots overall, but it could also have reduced the number of high-quality chances conceded and cut down on the aimless side-to-side possession in the final third that has characterised so many of their attacking spells this season.
Any tactical reset also has to contend with the unrest inside the squad. Bruno Fernandes, United's captain, was already enduring a disappointing individual campaign before the defeat in Como, where his conduct and subsequent comments appeared to criticise the coaching staff's tactics, per The Analyst. He was then dropped for the Bournemouth game.
Carrick did get a tune out of this squad before. United won 39 points following his appointment last season, more than any other club managed over that stretch, which is the clearest evidence that his methods can work with this group. Replicating that form now requires repairing a dressing room atmosphere that currently looks shaky, with confidence low and the captain's public unease hardly suggesting unified backing for the manager.
The schedule offers no margin for a slow recovery
United's upcoming fixtures make the timing brutal. Their next three opponents across all competitions, Chelsea, Roma and Villa, carry an average rating of 93.2 out of 100 in Opta's Power Rankings. Only three Premier League clubs face tougher opposition before the international break, and among the nine English clubs playing three matches in Europe over the next nine days, none have a harder run than United.
That leaves Carrick needing a dramatic and rapid upturn in performance level to use the time the club has granted him. The data suggests the fix is not simply about reclaiming territory United already have in abundance, but about converting the possession they do hold into the sort of high-value chances that have been missing, while tightening up a defence that is currently conceding clear sights of goal at an alarming rate.
Whether that adjustment comes before or after the international break may determine whether Carrick's stay of execution becomes something longer.