Chelsea's pressing and perfect record make them huge favourites over Tottenham
Data from The Analyst (Opta) shows why Chelsea, unbeaten in 13 WSL games and boasting the division's best defence, are rated overwhelming favourites against a Tottenham side still searching for a first win over 'big-four' opposition since 2023.
Chelsea have never lost to Tottenham in the Women's Super League, and Opta's predictive model treats Sunday's meeting at Stamford Bridge as one of the most one-sided fixtures of the weekend. The supercomputer gives the hosts a 78.4% chance of victory from 10,000 simulations, against just 8.6% for Spurs, with a draw landing in the remaining 13.1%, according to The Analyst (Opta).
The gap in recent form explains much of that split. Tottenham arrive having been thrashed 6-1 by London City Lionesses, a result that reversed back-to-back wins by four or more goals. Per The Analyst (Opta), that sequence makes Martin Ho's side the first team in WSL history to follow two such heavy victories with a defeat by an equally large margin in the same campaign.
Chelsea, by contrast, have not lost since their opening-day draw with Aston Villa and go into Sunday on a 13-game unbeaten run, the best of any side currently in the league. Four straight wins have them chasing a fifth in a row for the first time since last season began.
Why Chelsea's pressing numbers matter
Both sides rank among the WSL's most aggressive when out of possession. PPDA, which measures how many passes an opponent is allowed before a defensive action is attempted, sits at 7.9 for Chelsea, the lowest figure in the division, with Tottenham close behind at 8.3.
That proximity in the data makes Chelsea's defensive record more striking. They have conceded only once in five league games, an own goal from Veerle Buurman, matching their best start to a WSL campaign in 2015. Six clean sheets across all competitions is their longest such run since December 2021.
Chelsea also lead the league for high turnovers, a count of how often a team wins the ball back high up the pitch and quickly converts it into a shot. Allied to their pressing numbers, it points to a team controlling games before possession is even settled, rather than reacting once an opponent attacks.
Spurs create plenty, but not against the right teams
Tottenham's attacking output has not disappeared despite the heavy defeat. They lead the WSL for total shots with 125 and sit second only to Chelsea for shots on target, 37 to 38. Signe Gaupset has driven much of that threat, generating a league-high 18 chances, all from open play, and sharing the division's lead for assists with three.
Victoria Pelova has added further sharpness since joining from Arsenal, scoring five goals across her first three WSL starts for Spurs. Another goal from the start against Chelsea would make her only the third player in the club's history to score in four consecutive league starts, following Martha Thomas in 2023 and Bethany England in 2024.
None of that output has translated against the division's established powers. Tottenham have gone 20 league games without a win over 'big-four' opposition, drawing four and losing 16 since beating Arsenal 1-0 in December 2023. Against everyone else, the record flips entirely: 14 wins from their last 20 such matches. That split is the clearest evidence of where Ho's rebuild still has ground to make up, and why facing Chelsea represents a different proposition altogether from most of Tottenham's fixture list.
Walsh's new role is reshaping Chelsea's attack
Keira Walsh is playing in a markedly more advanced position than at any previous stage of her career. Across Europe's five major leagues this season, she is averaging three shots, two chances created and three touches inside the opposition box per 90 minutes, all personal highs.
The shift from last season is substantial. Walsh created just 0.3 chances per 90 minutes in 2025-26, and her touches in the attacking third have risen from 17 to 30 per 90 this season. More than a third of her touches, 35%, now come in the final third, up from a quarter last year. For a player long defined by her work shielding the back line and progressing possession from deep, that represents a genuine change of function, and it gives Chelsea an additional creative outlet that opponents have to account for beyond their recognised forwards.
Sunday also marks Sonia Bompastor's 50th league game in charge of Chelsea. She has taken 122 points from her first 49 matches, a return of 2.49 per game, and a win here would push her to 125, overtaking Joe Montemurro's record of 123 points for a manager's opening 50 WSL games. Ho, meanwhile, has lifted Tottenham's points-per-game average from 1.5 last season to 2.0 so far this campaign, built on a settled side that has changed just twice in personnel across its first five league fixtures.